Tuesday 10 February 2009

Why is foresight so top-heavy: towards the concept of IMS



Delving into the little I know about foresight/future studies, it does seem that there is a lot of predictions, future-gazing, possibility branching & rationalising, lots of high-level snr management stuff... but is that it? Is this foresight only to be applied to strategic analysis, or brainstorming for new policy definitions?

How much does innovation management come into this? How about innovation development at the task, product or project level? We have risk management and quality management, our six-sigmas and our QMSes but what about the other end of the equation. Some sort of systemisation of innovation into a process model where the inputs are current process models and foresight analysis, and the outputs are bottom-up-percolating innovation. Something like an IMS: innovation management system. I found this which is a semantic innovation management system, but not exactly what I was looking for.

The top level would be current strategic foresight work and macro market analysis, the middle level would be tactical innovation with probabilistic branching analysis and competitive analysis ie. management consulting but at the tactical level, and bottom level would be brainstorming for priority tasking in a PRINCE2-like environment. This could also work in an agile environment all the same. The IMS would base its discoveries' validity on a set of parameters called the "foresight KPIs", whether it is market share, sales, product turnover, no. of regions, no. of users, mindshare, social network nodes, latent brand strength, or other KPIs.

There would always be a place for top-down strategic analysis forecasting, possibility gazing on a macro scale which would encompass society changes, but what about the micro stuff? Definitely something to look into, but not that I know enough about this yet.

1 comment:

  1. Very pertinent post, thanks. Introducing foresight tools at the task, product or project level is a key issue in future studies. Most would say they are in favour of it, but the truth is the tools are designed for Davos-level thinking. As an "MBA-futurist" I've worked to pull the field towards the levels you speak of (but won't use this note to sell myself :) Just to say it is happening and all insights and assistance welcom! Adam Gordon, author: Future Savvy (Amacom, NY, 2009) http://www.futuresavvy.net

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